447
FXUS61 KALY 032327
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO NOTABLE UPDATES WERE
MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
WE REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY REACHED THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT HAS
SEEN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY RISE TO AROUND AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. HOWEVER,
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WORKED OVER DURING
LAST NIGHT'S UPSTREAM SEVERE CONVECTION; AN OVERALL LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING; AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE CONVERGENT
ZONE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC JET APPROACHES, THAT INSTABILITY IS
GOING TO LARGELY GO TO WASTE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A NON- SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF I-90.
IN FACT, MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL ENSURE
DECREASED MOISTURE CAN BE OVERCOME WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE PULSES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY,
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS STEADY. IN FACT, MONDAY, LABOR DAY,
WILL BE ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WON'T WIDELY INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. AN MCS WILL TRACK MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MCS CLIPS KPOU WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROB30
TO 04-07Z/FRI FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD TO START TONIGHT, THINNING OR DECREASING OF
THE CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM,
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF. AT KPOU, FOG WILL BE LIKELY IF RAIN
OCCURS THERE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY
PERIODS OF FOG. ANY FOG LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE RETURN OF
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 10-15 KT
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...FG.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...33
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