855
FXUS61 KALY 040529
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO NOTABLE UPDATES WERE
MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
WE REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY REACHED THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT HAS
SEEN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY RISE TO AROUND AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. HOWEVER,
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WORKED OVER DURING
LAST NIGHT'S UPSTREAM SEVERE CONVECTION; AN OVERALL LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING; AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE CONVERGENT
ZONE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC JET APPROACHES, THAT INSTABILITY IS
GOING TO LARGELY GO TO WASTE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A NON- SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF I-90.
IN FACT, MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL ENSURE
DECREASED MOISTURE CAN BE OVERCOME WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE PULSES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY,
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS STEADY. IN FACT, MONDAY, LABOR DAY,
WILL BE ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WON'T WIDELY INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE ALSO BEEN ONGOING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MOST OF THE
TAF SITES, IT WILL IMPACT KPOU OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WITHIN
THE SHOWERS, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BE EXPECTED FOR BOTH VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FOR
VISIBILITY, BUT IT LOOKS VERY BRIEF AND ISOLATED SO WON'T
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE, IT SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE KALB WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, THE OTHER TWO SITES (KGFL AND KPSF)
WILL SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY FOR BOTH OF
THESE SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF, WHERE
VISIBILITY MAY BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM.
AFTER SUNRISE, THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND IT WILL GO BACK TO VFR
FOR ALL SITES BY 13Z. THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY, FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL SITES. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOSTLY DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY EVENING, WITH JUST FEW CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR
ALL SITES. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KGFL AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
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