597
FXUS61 KALY 041031
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOR TODAY, A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST FOR A DRY DAY IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR ONE
MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES
(40-60%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT, AND LAKE GEORGE- SARATOGA REGIONS. WITH THE NATURE OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE (50-75%) FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE
TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING WITH LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
VERY LOW AT THIS FORECAST TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS SOME AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE TAF SITES FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN RESULTING IN SOME IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR KGFL AND KPSF. WITH SUNRISE NOW
UNDERWAY, THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR ANY LINGERING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS, BUT IT SHOULD BE ALL DONE AROUND 13Z OR SO.
ONCE THE FOG/MIST IS DONE, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 5-7 KFT AND
SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5-10
KTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL SITES. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY
DISSIPATE ON THIS EVENING, WITH JUST FEW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR ALL SITES. SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT FOR
KGFL AND KPSF, WITH POTENTIALLY MORE IFR CONDITIONS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...27
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