650
FXUS61 KALY 041819
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO REPORT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. TOMORROW, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WHILE
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AS A RESULT, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST
OF THESE WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THESE AREAS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OVERCOME OTHERWISE DRY AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, YIELDING PLEASANT CONDITIONS NOT JUST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT HEADING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHORTENED WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THAT RESULT FROM THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT 30% TO 70% PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN
GREENS, BERKSHIRES, AND TACONICS. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT, ALL OF THIS RAIN WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 5-7KFT SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED 8-12KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00 - 01 UTC THIS EVENING BUT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY 09 - 12 UTC AT PSF,
ALB, AND GFL RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO CLEARING SKIES BY 12-13 UTC WITH VFR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY 15 - 17 UTC AS WE HIT PEAK
HEATING. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND BERKSHIRES AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFL AND PSF MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF SHOWER AFTER 18 UTC/SAT BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY 13-15 UTC WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 5-8KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...31
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