518
FXUS61 KALY 042345
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO REPORT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. TOMORROW, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WHILE
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AS A RESULT, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST
OF THESE WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THESE AREAS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OVERCOME OTHERWISE DRY AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, YIELDING PLEASANT CONDITIONS NOT JUST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT HEADING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHORTENED WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THAT RESULT FROM THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT 30% TO 70% PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN
GREENS, BERKSHIRES, AND TACONICS. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT, ALL OF THIS RAIN WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
FROM KALB NORTH/NORTHEAST TO KGFL/KPSF WITH CIGS 7-9 KFT AGL
WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME LOWER STRATUS FORMING FOR KALB-KPSF-KGFL, WHERE
TEMPO GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED 09Z-13Z/SAT FOR CIGS 2-3 KFT AGL.
KPOU WITH HAVE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WE FELT THE THREAT
FOR PATCHY MIST WAS LOW, SO WE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. THE LOWER
STRATUS WILL BURN OFF 12-15Z/SAT, BUT THEN SOME DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS A DISTURBANCE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH CIGS 3.5-5 KFT AGL IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE USED VCSH GROUPS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z/SAT WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH HIGH LEVEL MVFR CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL
17Z/18Z-23Z/SAT FOR KPSF/KGFL
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE AT 4 KT OR LESS TONIGHT AND
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KT AT KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...15
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