631
FXUS61 KALY 052155
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
555 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO REPORT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASES THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AS AN UPPER- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EASTWARD- DEPARTING LOW. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT, ALL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT
AND BRIEF. ADDITIONALLY, AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH AND LARGELY MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL
LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT MID TO LATE MORNING.
LATEST CAMS INDICATE SOME OF THESE DRIFTING INTO THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND, SO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WERE ADDED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND THE BUILDING IN OF HIGH PRESSURE.
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE EXPECTATION FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(~40-80%) FOR AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS WITH LOW
CHANCES (~ 30% OR LESS) ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME, THERE NOT ONLY
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING LOW PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER WITH DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUPPORTING THAT SOLUTION WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ON
BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS IN THE
COMING DAYS AND REPORT ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. IF SHOWERS OCCURR, THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS AT KPSF
IN THE EARLY HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
STRATUS WILL LINGER WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR
CIGS ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE LOWERING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF AND KGFL. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST 5-10 KT WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR 15 KT AT KPOU. OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT 5 KT OR LESS BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTHEAST TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
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