245
FXUS61 KALY 061744
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLOODING BOTH
APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:35 AM EDT...CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW (ULL) SITTING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, WITH A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH INTO UPSTATE NY AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THERE ISN'T A TON OF MOISTURE, THIS HAS
STILL PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS,
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BENEATH AMPLIFYING RIDGING ALOFT. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TODAY
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (60S TO LOW 70S), BUT
TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND TUESDAY FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL (40S TO
50S) EACH NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO THE REGION AS A POTENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO
OUR NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH, A PRE-FRONTAL DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE IN PART TO MEAGER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SO, WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE, THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. WHILE WPC HAS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK ERO, THIS SEEMS TO REPRESENT A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO, AS FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, LACK OF INSTABILITY, AND FAST STORM
MOTIONS. WE COLLABORATED WITH BTV AND GYX ON THE MESSAGING,
WHICH IS THAT, BY AND LARGE, ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED WILL BE
BENEFICIAL. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO DROP SOUTH OF OUR REGION, BUT AS IT
FINALLY DOES SO TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO TREND COOLER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TRACKING NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HILL
TOWN AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PSF SHOULD MAINLY STAY DRY
BUT GIVEN PROXIMITY TO NEARBY SHOWERS, MAINTAINED VCSH THROUGH
SUNSET. THEN, SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, THERE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT IFR VIS FROM FOG/MIST MAINLY AT GFL. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG AT PSF IS LOWER, STILL SHOW A TEMPO
FROM 08 - 12 UTC GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ANY BRIEF DAYTIME SHOWERS
THAT CAN MOISTEN LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. VFR
CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH 22 UTC TODAY WILL BE SUSTAINED 5-12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KTS. THEN, WINDS TURN LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY 14-16 UTC MONDAY
SUSTAINED 5-12KTS GUSTS 15-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...31
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