141
FXUS61 KALY 071810
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER AND/OR FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, WILL TRACK EAST INTO NY STATE TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUE COOL MORNINGS AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN TYPICAL
FAVORED RIVER/SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE BRINGING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS,
HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED BY LATE TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FOR CONDITIONS TO NOT
BE FAVORED FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS
THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AFTER A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO EARLY THU AS A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY ON WED, SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH/EAST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AS THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO
+1 TO +2 STDEV, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL
ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LACK OF CONVECTION
AND PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL TURN HUMID
BEFORE A DRIER AIR MASS STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THU. IT WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY DURING THIS TIME, FIRST
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WED, THEN WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THU WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME CIRRUS
DRIFTING IN OVER THE TOP OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH CIRRUS TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE MIST/FOG FORMING FOR THE
MOST THE TAF SITES. WE DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FROM 06Z-10Z/TUE AT
KGFL AND 08Z-11Z/KPSF FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MIST/FOG. IF
THE CIRRUS IS THICKER EARLY, THEN FOG MAY NOT FORM. ANY
MIST/FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z/TUE
WITH SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS 15-18 KT, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT KGFL TOWARDS 20Z/TUE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM TONIGHT AND BE GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4-8 KT IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...15
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