635
FXUS61 KALY 072313
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER AND/OR FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, WILL TRACK EAST INTO NY STATE TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUE COOL MORNINGS AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN TYPICAL
FAVORED RIVER/SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE BRINGING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS,
HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED BY LATE TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FOR CONDITIONS TO NOT
BE FAVORED FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS
THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AFTER A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO EARLY THU AS A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY ON WED, SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH/EAST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AS THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO
+1 TO +2 STDEV, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL
ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LACK OF CONVECTION
AND PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL TURN HUMID
BEFORE A DRIER AIR MASS STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THU. IT WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY DURING THIS TIME, FIRST
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WED, THEN WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THU WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL BE ABLE TO
FORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED THE TEMPO WINDOW FOR KGFL TO
09-11Z/TUE AND REMOVED FROM KPSF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AND PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...33
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