981
FXUS61 KALY 080605
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED NBM DEWPOINTS TODAY. INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, AS NBM VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AND NOT
CAPTURING MIXING POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
AND/OR FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WHICH
COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WED P.M INTO EARLY THU AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. INITIALLY THHROUGH THE DAY ON WED, SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY, CLOSER TO WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE, AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU A.M. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE (PWAT
ANOMALIES RISE TO +1 TO +3 STDEV) SOME EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE < 500 J/KG
WED EVENING/NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER, BUT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS LOW. DUE TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT, SPC CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS. THIS SEEMS LIKE A WORST-CASE
SCENARIO THOUGH DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
UNFAVORABLE TIME AT NIGHT. NCAR AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARDS
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY MINIMAL PROBS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT < 5%. WITH STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ALOFT WED INTO WED
NIGHT (40-45 KT AT 850 MB), OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
OCCUR IN FAVORED S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN FACING
SLOPES.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THU MORNING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
EXPECTED IN A DEVELOPING DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCING. IT WILL STILL BE WARM DUE TO THE MIXING,
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO DROP FROM NW TO SE LATE
IN THE DAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED THERE
COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND IFR VSBY AT KGFL, SO WILL
MENTION A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE CALM,
BECOMING MAINLY NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KT BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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