885
FXUS61 KALY 091746
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLIER, NOW EXPECTED TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90. INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
NBM VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AND NOT CAPTURING MIXING
POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS WILL BECOME
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
FLASH FLOODING IS GENERALLY LOW.
2) TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING A BIT
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AS A LEAD DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. WILL MENTION LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING REFS/HREF) STILL INDICATING
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE < 500 J/KG FROM AROUND ALBANY
NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-45
KT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IT IS LIKELY STORMS
WILL NOT GROW TALL ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH. SPC CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
A SMALL AREA INCLUDING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS FOR
A FEW POSSIBLE ROGUE STRONGER GUSTS. SEVERE PROBS REMAIN LOW
THOUGH DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STORMS MOVING IN PRIMARILY
AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES INCREASE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES NOW FORECAST TO BE +2 TO +3
STDEV FROM THE NAEFS. SO BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW DUE TO EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF INCH, EXCEPT > 1" IN THE W/SW ADIRONDACKS DUE TO
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE BY DAYBREAK
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WITH STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ALOFT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
(35-45 KT AT 850 MB), OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL OCCUR
IN FAVORED S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN SLOPES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU IN A
DEVELOPING DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WARM (HIGHS 80-85F IN HUDSON VALLEY) DUE TO DEEPER MIXING,
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER IN THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY FRI-SAT PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. IT WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE HUMID DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIDING BY THE REGION TO THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL AND
KALB THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THESE SHOWERS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY, THERE COULD BE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR EITHER VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF AND KALB.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FLYING CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO IFR, MAINLY FOR VISIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS IN THE
1500-2500 FT RANGE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR KPSF/KPOU, WITH 2 KFT WINDS
AROUND 40-45 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 15 KTS FOR ALL SITES. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...27
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