160
FXUS61 KALY 100615
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENHANCED MIXING POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH WARM, DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY.
2) TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS
CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
AROUND 2.0", WILL LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY, WITH SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
DEVELOPING, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A GOOD MIXING
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM RANGING FROM AROUND
70F IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS TO MID 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
IT WILL STILL BE HUMID THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S, THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING COOL,
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OFF THE COAST, A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO
DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT (PWAT
ANOMALIES RISE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV), WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST BRINGING SOME SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID AGAIN, WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 60S ON SUN. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR
ON SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN BUILD
IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VSBY TO MAINLY
MVFR LEVELS THROUGH AROUND 08Z OR 09Z. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES, EXCEPT MVFR/IFR AT KGFL. ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z TODAY, AS A DRIER AIR MASS
STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT
KGFL/KPOU DUE TO A SW JET OF 40-45 KT STILL OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SURFACE
WINDS AT KALB/KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 10 KT, SO WILL NOT
MENTION LLWS THERE. THE LLWS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 08Z OR 09Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KT, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 12-16 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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