710
FXUS61 KALY 101712
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENHANCED MIXING POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH WARM, DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY.
2) TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS
CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
AROUND 2.0", WILL LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY, WITH SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
DEVELOPING, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A GOOD MIXING
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM RANGING FROM AROUND
70F IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS TO MID 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
IT WILL STILL BE HUMID THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S, THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING COOL,
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OFF THE COAST, A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO
DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT (PWAT
ANOMALIES RISE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV), WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST BRINGING SOME SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID AGAIN, WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 60S ON SUN. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR
ON SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN BUILD
IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KALB, KPOU,
AND KPSF. FOR KGFL, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z
WHICH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN A TEMPO GROUP. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP, THEN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEYOND 12Z TO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER TWO TO THREE HOURS WITH
GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF WHERE
GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z. THEN, WINDS
DECREASE ONCE THE SUN SETS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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