068
FXUS61 KALY 101838
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
238 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED AND CONTINUED WINDS/GUSTS THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENHANCED MIXING POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. LOWERED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TEMPERATURES, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS (25-35 MPH)
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BLOW AROUND ANY OUTDOORS
UNSECURED OBJECTS.
2) THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST, A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HEIGHTS RISING
AND THE NAEFS SHOWING HEIGHT ANOMALIES +2.5-3.0 STDEVS FOR TODAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM RANGING FROM AROUND 70F IN THE W.
ADIRONDACKS TO MID 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER THE SECOND
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S-60S
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ENCOURAGE FURTHER MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE W-NW. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY AND COULD BLOW
AROUND ANY OUTDOORS UNSECURED OBJECTS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN TOMORROW INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT, WHERE TERRAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
W. ADKS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S, WITH LOW 50S IN
VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, A WARMER MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSFER
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO MORE
NOTICEABLE LEVELS IN THE 60S. NAEFS GUIDANCE SHOW PWAT VALUES
ABOUT +1.5-2" STDEV. MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING TWO PERIODS FROM SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE IS TIMED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE
NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING WHERE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER,
DUTCHESS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. SKINNY VERTICAL PROFILES HAVE
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS GREATER THAN 10,000 FT WHICH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SBCAPE VALUES
RANGE 500-1000 J/KG.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO RECEIVE OR EXCEED 0.5" AND A LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) TO RECEIVE 1" OR GREATER. HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS TO RAINFALL TOTALS IN THESE
AREAS. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN 0.5". ACROSS THE REGION, RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHERE THERE IS TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT, MAINLY IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG. WPC
HAS PLACED JUST THE VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING PRIMARILY EFFECTING URBAN
AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS WHERE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TYPICALLY
OCCURS. DRIER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN BUILD IN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KALB, KPOU,
AND KPSF. FOR KGFL, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z
WHICH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN A TEMPO GROUP. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP, THEN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEYOND 12Z TO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER TWO TO THREE HOURS WITH
GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF WHERE
GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z. THEN, WINDS
DECREASE ONCE THE SUN SETS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page