953
FXUS61 KALY 110607
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. QPF HAS ALSO INCREASED,
WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH/EAST EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
0.50"-1.25" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE PERSISTENT
DOWNPOURS OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
LOWS WILL BE COOL RANGING FROM UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR
IN TYPICAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR WARMER BODIES OF WATER.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT, WITH
A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SO AFTER A COOL START TO
THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NORMAL LEVEL IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +3
STDEV SAT NIGHT(GREATEST FROM ALB SOUTH). THIS COINCIDES WITH A
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR NYC. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND FORCING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOW EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS LACKING, DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE
INDICATING MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS EASTERN NY, WITH < 1000 J/KG IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO AROUND 35-45 KT. THE
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE MAY RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS, WITH SOME
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END SUN
NIGHT, AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BY MON MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 08Z-13Z, SO THERE WILL BE AN BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG AT KGFL. WILL MENTION TEMPO FROM 08Z-11Z FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THERE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY
BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, INCREASING TO 8-10 KT BY
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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