610
FXUS61 KALY 111734
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
LOWS WILL BE COOL RANGING FROM UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR
IN TYPICAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR WARMER BODIES OF WATER.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT, WITH
A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SO AFTER A COOL START TO
THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NORMAL LEVEL IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +3
STDEV SAT NIGHT(GREATEST FROM ALB SOUTH). THIS COINCIDES WITH A
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR NYC. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND FORCING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOW EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS LACKING, DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE
INDICATING MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS EASTERN NY, WITH < 1000 J/KG IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO AROUND 35-45 KT. THE
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE MAY RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS, WITH SOME
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END SUN
NIGHT, AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BY MON MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORED FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME SHALLOW OR EVEN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG BY TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED ACCORDINGLY FOR POTENTIAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALB AND POU AND IFR AT GFL AND PSF. ONCE FOG BURNS
OFF UPON SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL SWIFTLY
RETURN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 5-10 KT AND
GUSTS UP TO 20KT. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL GO CALM AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page