527
FXUS61 KALY 141756
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS TRENDING CALM ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS ALOFT (-1 TO -2
STDEV) WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS WITHIN THE
SW ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EASTERN CATSKILLS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST LOOKS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE NO
FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. NEVERTHELESS, THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
PLANTS/VEGETATION MAY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN THESE AREAS.
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO RESUME. IT WILL REMAIN
FALL-LIKE TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY MIDWEEK BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TO
MID-70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT.
PENDING HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES (+2 TO +3 STDEV). ENOUGH FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT THE FRONT SOUTH ENOUGH FOR
DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 06Z/TUE
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOME PATCHY TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RADIATIVE MIST/FOG MAY FORM AT KGFL/KPSF AND
WE USED A TEMPO GROUP 08Z-11Z/TUE FOR KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS, AND WE WERE LESS CONFIDENT AT KPSF AND PLACED SOME
MVFR RADIATIVE MIST AT KPSF AFTER 08Z/TUE. KALB WE KEPT VFR
WITH SOME SHALLOW MIST/FOG FORMING POSSIBLY, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
IF ANY MIST/FOG (IFR/LIFR LEVELS) DRIFTS IN ESPECIALLY OFF THE
MOHAWK TOWARDS 09Z-12Z/TUE. VFR CONDITIONS WERE KEPT IN FOR
KPOU. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CIRRUS AFTER 12Z-14Z/TUE
AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-15 KT WITH GUSTS 18-25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 22Z/MON-00Z/TUE. THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER 04Z/TUE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT BY
THE LATE MORNING.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/33
AVIATION...15
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