354
FXUS61 KALY 151054
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
2) DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A CHILLY START WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD, THE
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
FOR A LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO DEVELOP. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT NORTH OF I-90 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
70S FOR MOST AREAS, POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND 80 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL/WASH OUT NEAR OR SOUTH
OF I-90 WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWAT'S INCREASE TO 1.50-1.75" ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK, MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTH OF THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT MAY THEN RETURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BRINGING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BETTER REFINED AS WE GET A BIT
CLOSER TO THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIFT/IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/TUE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR
AT KPSF AND POSSIBLY KALB TOWARD 12Z/WED.
NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST AT KALB
TONIGHT, WHILE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ELSEWHERE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/33
AVIATION...24
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