445
FXUS61 KALY 161800
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIMING OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IS NOW
EARLIER IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDER WAS MOSTLY REMOVED DUE
TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2) DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW AN EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME OF SHOWERS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING IN
THE MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON AND POINTS EAST. WITH THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL TIME OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, SO THUNDER WAS MOSTLY REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES (+2 TO +3 STDEV), THE OVERALL
LIMITED COVERAGE OF HEAVIER, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IF ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THOUGH SOME PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WHERE ANY
REPEATED DOWNPOURS OCCUR. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME TREND CONTINUES, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WET-BULB
EFFECTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
THIS WILL BRING A COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE EC-AIFS AND
AIGFS, ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ASCENT FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1
INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT.
WHILE MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL, WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF
THIS RAIN MATERIALIZES, IT COULD BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH SOME
AREAS POTENTIALLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL
NEAR OR SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP IT SOUTH ENOUGH FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY IF THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 4000-7000 FT. WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH, MVFR/IFR STRATUS
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP,
THEN FOG/MIST AND IFR/LIFR FLIGHT VSBYS COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF. CURRENT CAMS SHOW THE BEST
CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN MORE SOUTHERN
AREAS NEAR KALB AND KPOU. ANY FOG/MIST THAT DEVELOPS MAY LINGER
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
CAMS SHOW POSSIBLE TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ARRIVING FIRST AT
KGFL AND KALB FOLLOWED BY KPOU AND KPSF. THIS IS SHOWN BY A
PROB30. WINDS RANGING FROM SE TO SW REMAIN 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND/OR CALM. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NE 4-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/33
AVIATION...53
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