750
FXUS61 KALY 170546
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIMING OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IS NOW
EARLIER IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDER WAS MOSTLY REMOVED DUE
TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2) DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW AN EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME OF SHOWERS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING IN
THE MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON AND POINTS EAST. WITH THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL TIME OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, SO THUNDER WAS MOSTLY REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGH ON
THE ORDER OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES (+2 TO +3 STDEV), THE OVERALL
LIMITED COVERAGE OF HEAVIER, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IF ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THOUGH SOME PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WHERE ANY
REPEATED DOWNPOURS OCCUR. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME TREND CONTINUES, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WET-BULB
EFFECTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
THIS WILL BRING A COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE EC-AIFS AND
AIGFS, ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ASCENT FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1
INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT.
WHILE MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL, WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF
THIS RAIN MATERIALIZES, IT COULD BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH SOME
AREAS POTENTIALLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL
NEAR OR SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP IT SOUTH ENOUGH FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY IF THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AS OF 1:40 AM EDT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST AND
IFR VSBYS WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AT GFL. GIVEN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL AT 4000-6000 FT, HAVE CUT BACK ON/SLOWED
DOWN ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT ALB/PSF/POU, BUT MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
SOME IFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT PSF. FOR GFL, MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO REDEVELOP
AT TIMES WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ALL TERMINALS SEE SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR CIGS
THIS MORNING, BUT CIGS WILL LOWER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT ALB/GFL. SHOWERS SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS. RAIN ENDS 23-02Z
THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER RAIN
ENDS, ESPECIALLY AT GFL/PSF, ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MAY
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG/MIST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AT ALB/GFL,
BUT INCREASE TO 4-8 KT FROM THE S/SE AT POU/PSF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN SWITCH TO THE W/NW AFTER RAIN ENDS TONIGHT AT
ALB/POU/PSF, BUT REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AT
GFL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/33
AVIATION...35
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page