463
FXUS61 KALY 181024
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE NWS
ALBANY FORECAST AREA. WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RAIN SUNDAY, FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
2) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRIER BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:50 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE WEAK SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS YESTERDAY DEPARTING WELL
TO OUR EAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY, WITH A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING NY AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS
SECOND FRONT, ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO PLENTY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO IN THE 60S, WHICH IS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM FOR MID SEPTEMBER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S (HIGH TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT, WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. IT WILL END UP BEING A VERY PLEASANT DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO MID 70S (VALLEYS), LOWERING HUMIDITY, AND
BREEZY N/NW WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A 1028+ MB SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
(TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS). DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS, SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR WETLANDS.
WITH THE ADKS BEING CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH, FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED AREAS, BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
TOMORROW, THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND, BUT IT SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EARLY-FALL DAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER IMPULSE AND TRACK ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS/JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARDS INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH, STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT/FGEN AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT, SO WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE 0.25 TO 0.75"
NORTH OF I-90, WITH 0.75 TO 1.5" SOUTH, EXCEPT NEAR I-84 WHERE SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 2" WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT 1-HR FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY >2", RAIN WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE,
AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, WE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS AND WPC TO HAVE THE SLIGHT RISK ERO TRIMMED BACK. HOWEVER,
EVEN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK ERO STILL SEEMS
TOO BULLISH. WHILE SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN THE TYPICAL
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE, THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FLASH FLOODING IN THE ALY CWA IS
VERY, VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/WETBULBING,
HIGHS SUNDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS.
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SFC
HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH, SO MONDAY LOOKS
RELATIVELY DRY AT THIS TIME. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH OR IF THE SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT
ENOUGH THAT THE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO LIFT NORTH AND BRING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SFC HIGH, WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION. WITH OUR
AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO 60S
(ELSEWHERE) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S EACH DAY/NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AS OF 6:20 AM EDT, STILL SEEING SOME IFR TO
LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT GFL/POU/PSF WITH FOG/MIST/LOW STRATUS, WHILE
ALB IS SEEING MVFR STRATUS. FOG/MIST/LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE N/NW.
BY MID-MORNING, JUST EXPECTING SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 4000-6000 FT PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MID CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WITH A LIGHT
WIND AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT, HAVE OPTED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY FOG/MIST AT THIS TIME, BUT IT CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT AT GFL/PSF. WILL EVALUATE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES AND SEE
IF THIS NEEDS TO BE ADDED.
LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO 5-10 KT FROM THE N/NW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/33
AVIATION...35
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