860
FXUS61 KALY 201744
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEYS), AND SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS FOR MON/TUE NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TAPER OFF THIS EVENING,
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE THIS
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER WE WILL SEE IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW
TO SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THEN LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP, PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, WITH MOST
LIKELY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEYS
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK, A DEVELOPING LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE MAY ALLOW ANY FOG TO LIFT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO I-84 DURING THIS TIME TIME PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AM, HOWEVER OVERALL CHANCES ARE
RATHER LOW (20-30%).
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM, AS A THICK VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COLDER TEMPS AND FROST FORMATION FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST, AND ANY IMPACTS (RAIN/BREEZY CONDITIONS) ACROSS
EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING
LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN, WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AS IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
RESULTING SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE OFF THE EAST COAST. MOST
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN/BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW
DELAYED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THESE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERNS, AND SO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
LATE-WEEK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STEADY LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND MIST HAS BEEN ONGOING AT ALL TAF
SITES SO FAR TODAY, BUT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
20Z-22Z, MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH RAINFALL BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL STILL MENTION IFR
VISIBILITY WITHIN LIGHT RAIN/MIST THROUGH THAT TIME FOR ALL
SITES. ONCE RAIN ENDS, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL STILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS AROUND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES, WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 800-1200
FT. SOME MIST IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AS WELL, WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY IN THE 2-4SM RANGE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A NORTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE BACK ABOVE 6 SM
BY THE LATE NIGHT (AFTER 07Z-08Z) THANKS TO THE DRYING BREEZE,
BUT IT MAY TAKE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL DAYBREAK TO SCOUR OUT,
ESPECIALLY FOR SITES LIKE KGFL AND KPSF, WHERE THE LOCAL TERRAIN
WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. AFTER DAYBREAK, ALL SITES
SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR WITH JUST FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE AT
5-10 KTS. DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...27
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