851
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEYS), AND SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS FOR MON/TUE NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TAPER OFF THIS EVENING,
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE THIS
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER WE WILL SEE IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW
TO SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THEN LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP, PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, WITH MOST
LIKELY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEYS
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK, A DEVELOPING LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE MAY ALLOW ANY FOG TO LIFT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO I-84 DURING THIS TIME TIME PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AM, HOWEVER OVERALL CHANCES ARE
RATHER LOW (20-30%).
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM, AS A THICK VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COLDER TEMPS AND FROST FORMATION FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST, AND ANY IMPACTS (RAIN/BREEZY CONDITIONS) ACROSS
EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING
LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN, WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AS IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
RESULTING SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE OFF THE EAST COAST. MOST
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN/BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW
DELAYED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THESE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERNS, AND SO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
LATE-WEEK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL. THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOW CIGS IN THE
800-2000 FT AGL RANGE. KPSF HAS THE IFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST WITH THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME IFR MIST AND CIGS TO FORM AT KGFL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z/MON. WE KEPT THE CIGS IFR FOR KPSF WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME
LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z. MVFR CIGS IN THE
1-2 KFT AGL RANGE MAY PERSISTS MOST OF THE TIME AT KALB/KPOU,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME IFR CIGS WITH THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
MOIST FLOW AND WE USED A TEMPO AT THESE SITES. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THE LONGEST AT KPSF UNTIL 19Z/MON. WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION, EXPECT HIGH
CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL MAY REACH KPOU TOWARDS 00Z/TUE.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 4-8 KT THIS MORNING, THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KPOU IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON . THE WINDS DECREASE TO 7 KT OR LESS AFTER 23Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...15
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