314
FXUS61 KALY 210659
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
259 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND ADDED THE SOUTHERN GREENS TONIGHT. EXPANDED COVERAGE OF
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS TUE NIGHT
AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IF CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS
OF FROST (33-36F) INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DECREASE THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WED.
2) A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER WE
WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
CLEARING NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS LAKE GEORGE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP. OTHERWISE,
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM, AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5-10
DEGREES WITH MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS WITH N/NE WINDS
5-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A CANOPY OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS (15-24% CHANCE)/SPRINKLES MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. CLEARING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
MAY ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO MID 30S TO AROUND 40F. SOME PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT. LOWS WILL BE COOL IN THE 40S FROM I-90 AND THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
A STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO RIDGE IN OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
FROM TUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL ON TUE WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH. AUTUMN BEGINS AT 805
PM TUESDAY. A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH LOWS 33-36F. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS. LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE
COMMON NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MOHAWK VALLEY,
EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS. EXPECT LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. TEMPS REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL WED AND THU WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER S-CNTRAL QUEBEC, AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL REX BLOCK SETS-UP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FORECAST PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLES,
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE AND AI GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FORMING AND TRACKING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY
ON THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK. WITH THE REX BLOCK SETTING UP ALOFT
WHICH IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE COASTAL LOW POSITION IS
UNCERTAIN WHERE IT WILL CLOSE OFF. THE LATEST DAYS 4-7 WPC
GUIDANCE DOES BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (30-40%) FROM THE
NORTHERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, SOUTHERN VT SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
FRI PM-FRI NIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
THE OPENING OF THE WEEKEND FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND LONG ISLAND, THEN IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. BLOCK FLOW REGIMES AND CLOSED LOWS
ARE CHALLENGING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING, EVOLUTION AND PCPN
DISTRIBUTIONS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LATE-WEEK SHOULD
BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL. THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOW CIGS IN THE
800-2000 FT AGL RANGE. KPSF HAS THE IFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST WITH THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME IFR MIST AND CIGS TO FORM AT KGFL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z/MON. WE KEPT THE CIGS IFR FOR KPSF WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME
LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z. MVFR CIGS IN THE
1-2 KFT AGL RANGE MAY PERSISTS MOST OF THE TIME AT KALB/KPOU,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME IFR CIGS WITH THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
MOIST FLOW AND WE USED A TEMPO AT THESE SITES. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THE LONGEST AT KPSF UNTIL 19Z/MON. WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION, EXPECT HIGH
CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL MAY REACH KPOU TOWARDS 00Z/TUE.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 4-8 KT THIS MORNING, THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KPOU IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON . THE WINDS DECREASE TO 7 KT OR LESS AFTER 23Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page