141
FXUS61 KALY 212333
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED, TODAY SEPTEMBER 21ST, FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, PLEASE VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/ALY/ALY_FROST_FREEZE_FALL2026.PDF OR
WEATHER.GOV/ALY AND CLICK THE FIRST HEADLINE CALLED FALL 2026
FROST FREEZE PROGRAM.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD OBSERVE THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S (HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS) TO THE MID
40S (RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS). THESE LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY RANGE IN THE 50S
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE MID-60S IN THE VALLEYS. THIS
IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW: LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE WEEKEND COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT THEY ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. NOW, THERE ARE MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THE MOST SUPPORTED SCENARIO BY THE LATEST FORECAST IS
FOR LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE LOW STAYS WEST, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO
BRING THESE LOW CHANCES AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE SURFACE
LOW COULD MEANDER JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST,
BRINGING THESE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS
WELL OUT TO SEA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THE THIRD
SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP AND MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE KEY TAKEAWAY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THAT FOR THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES,
LITCHFIELD HILLS, WIND GUSTS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25
AND 40 MPH. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
IMPACT: BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
TACONICS, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND BERKSHIRES, COULD KNOCK OVER AND
MOVE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SUCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. FOG FORMATION WILL BE
MITIGATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN SPATIAL
SPREAD AND THICKNESS OVER THE REGION. SOME LOWER-LEVEL STRATUS
COULD MIX IN AT TIMES, THOUGH HEIGHTS OF ANY CEILINGS THAT
DEVELOP AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 KFT. OTHERWISE,
CEILINGS BETWEEN 15-25 KFT WILL REMAIN COMMON. TOMORROW, CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO THIN AND CEILINGS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
LARGELY BREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...12
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