359
FXUS61 KALY 230532
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FURTHER LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ADDING IN ADDITIONAL PATCHY
AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS, BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT, RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST OUTSIDE
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY ENDED THEIR GROWING SEASON IN THE SOUTHERN
ADKS, NORTHERN LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR
THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK STILL REMAINS
LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG PAIR OF CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH OF JAMES BAY,
CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF I-90, WITH COVERAGE STILL
PERSISTING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. AFTER ONLY REACHING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) AND UPPER 60S (VALLEYS), ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOL AFTER
SUNSET. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DECREASING, THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH LEFT ALONG WITH A LIGHT BREEZE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMPARED TO TOMORROW NIGHT. TONIGHT, SOME PATCHY TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE GROWING
SEASON ENDED YESTERDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS, SO NO HEADLINES THERE
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA (33 TO 36F) WILL NOT BE MET FOR OUR AREAS STILL WITHIN THE
GROWING SEASON TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A REX BLOCK
BEGINS TO SET UP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION POLEWARD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IDEAL FOR A RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND CALMING WINDS TOMORROW
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO ABOUT 40F IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALSO IN THE EASTERN/NORTHERN
CATSKILLS. LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH AND EAST AND WITHIN MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF MIN TEMPS BELOW 37F FOR
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS, LAKE
GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION/GLENS FALLS AREA, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT,
SUGGESTING PATCHY FROST MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST
TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH COULD MEET FROST ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME
PATCHY TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. PLEASANT FALL WEATHER
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD ONE MORE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL CYCLONE THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING NEAR OR EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PATTERNS
LATER THIS WEEK WILL TRY TO AID IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST UNDERGOING
CYCLOGENSIS, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE TRACK, EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF RAIN, WINDS AND COASTAL IMPACTS
VARY STILL ON THE ENSEMBLES, DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND
THE EC/GFS AI AND DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ONE SOLUTION SHOWS TRACK
WELL OFFSHORE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD AT BEST.
THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AND AI SHOW A THIRD TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTING
FURTHER WEST TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. A THIRD CLUSTER, AND THE MOST
FAVORED TRACK AT THIS TIME HAS THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND FOR INTERMITTENT BANDS OF SHOWERS
(MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TRACK,
BUT THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
OUR FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS THE NBM INTO FRI AND THE WPC DAY 4-7
GUIDANCE INCORPORATED THEREAFTER. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PROBABILISTIC NBM GUIDANCE
IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME HAS A 30 TO 40% CHANCE FOR 30-35
MPH GUSTS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND A 40 TO
50% CHANCE FOR 30-35 MPH GUSTS IN SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN (TACONICS, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND
CATSKILLS). THESE WINDS COULD BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOORS OBJECTS
OR KNOCK DOWN SOME FOLIATED SMALLER TREE LIMBS. THE CHANCES OF
IMPACTFUL RAINFALL ARE LOW WITH PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOWING ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR 1" OR
GREATER THROUGH 8AM MONDAY. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR RADIATIONAL
MIST MAY IMPACT KGFL PRIOR TO 11Z/WED AND WE USED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. WE WERE NOT
CONFIDENT FOR RADIATIONAL MIST OR LOW STRATUS AT KPSF AND KEPT
IT VFR PRIOR TO 12Z/WED. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST/GROUND
FOG MAY GET NEAR KALB, BUT WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND WE KEPT IT
VFR. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR DURING THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW-SCT CIRRUS. THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AT 4 KT OR LESS TO CALM PRIOR TO DAY BREAK. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT 8-13 KT IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KPSF AND KPOU. THE WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KT
OR LESS AFTER 22Z/WED AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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