421
FXUS61 KALY 230714
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
314 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MIN TEMPS WERE TRENDED COLDER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH A
BLEND OF THE NBM AND MAVMOS GUIDANCE. SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF LAKE GEORGE AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S. A FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT IF TEMPS TREND COLDER FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND SCATTERED FROST.
A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE COASTAL LOW FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE TIMING OF RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. WINDS/WIND GUSTS WERE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ABOVE THE NBM GUIDANCE LATE FRI INTO SAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DRY AND CHILLY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW
FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO INTERMITTENTLY STREAM INTO THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES, AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR
MAJOR BODIES OF WATER WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK. THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEEPER MIXING AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BETWEEN THE
STRONG HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC CORRIDOR WILL
YIELD BREEZY NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
20-25 MPH WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID AND SPOTTY UPPER 60S
IN THE VALLEYS.
THE REX BLOCK THAT SETS UP DURING THE DAY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION NORTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONG SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
YIELDING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER/MID 40S. THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE AREAS TO
LOCALLY WIDESPREAD FROST MAY OCCUR. TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY AREAS OF FROST OVER
SOUTHERN VT AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION. SOME SCATTERED FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE ONE ZONE WE
MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR IS SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY LATER.
MOST OTHER ZONES ARE BORDERLINE. THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND
EAST. THE NBM WAS BLENDED WITH THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS. ALSO, SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE LOW TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON THU TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AS THE COASTAL
LOW FORMS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIDGING WITH THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THU NIGHT INTO FRI ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING OCEANIC OR
COASTAL LOW NEAR 35N/70W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EVOLUTION
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCES TRY TO PHASE, BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AND EC/GFS AI STILL VARY ON THE TIMING,
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE STORM. A SHIFT WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE
COAST HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (SOME RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CMC GUIDANCE), BUT THE TRACK LOOKS SLOWER ON SOME THE
WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS LIKE THE LATEST EC AND SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH IMPACTS NOT UNTIL LATE SAT PM/SAT NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST GFS IS FAST MOVING THE WAVE TOWARDS CAPE COD
AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, AND THEN
RETROGRADING OR MEANDERING THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT
WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE OF A EASTERN MOST SOLUTION. THE EC
WOULD HAVE THE INTENSE AND DEEP COASTAL WAVE MOVE TOWARDS LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT IT
BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS COASTAL NJ AND THE DELMARVA
REGION. THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES MAKE THE IMPACTS FOR
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNCERTAIN, BUT A SHIFT
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY IF THE WESTERN MOST SCENARIO OR
CLUSTER THE EC ENSEMBLE AND AI LEANS TOWARD. THE SOLUTION TRACK
WELL OFFSHORE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD IS
STILL THERE. HOWEVER, THE NBM AND WPC CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE THIRD SCENARIO OR CLUSTER WHERE THE STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND FOR PERIODS OR OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS (LIGHT TO MODERATE BEGINNING LATE FRI PM /FRI
NIGHT) FROM THE I-87 OR HUDSON VALLEY CORRIDOR EASTWARD
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECREASING ON SUNDAY. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY OR BRISK AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP. H850 -U WINDS ANOMALIES (EASTERLIES) BECOME 2 TO 4
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LATE FRI INTO
SAT.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS THE NBM WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCES (20 TO 40%) OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST FRI PM INTO FRI NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASING TO 40-60% FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT-SAT NIGHT. THE 48-HR NBM PROBS FOR
>1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE 48-HR PERIOD ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE 20-50% RANGE FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OVER
NW CT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH PROBABILITIES FOR THE 48-HR PERIOD
ENDING 8 AM MONDAY INDICATING LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 2 AM SUN HAS A 30 TO 50%
CHANCE > 35 MPH GUSTS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT INCLUDING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
THESE WINDS COULD BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOORS OBJECTS OR
KNOCK DOWN SOME FOLIATED TREE LIMBS. SLIGHT SHIFTS WITH THE
STORM TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, SO
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES
AWAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR RADIATIONAL
MIST MAY IMPACT KGFL PRIOR TO 11Z/WED AND WE USED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. WE WERE NOT
CONFIDENT FOR RADIATIONAL MIST OR LOW STRATUS AT KPSF AND KEPT
IT VFR PRIOR TO 12Z/WED. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST/GROUND
FOG MAY GET NEAR KALB, BUT WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND WE KEPT IT
VFR. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR DURING THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW-SCT CIRRUS. THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AT 4 KT OR LESS TO CALM PRIOR TO DAY BREAK. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT 8-13 KT IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KPSF AND KPOU. THE WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KT
OR LESS AFTER 22Z/WED AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
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