964
FXUS61 KALY 231043
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MIN TEMPS WERE TRENDED COLDER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH A
BLEND OF THE NBM AND MAVMOS GUIDANCE. SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF LAKE GEORGE AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S. A FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT, IF TEMPS TREND COLDER FROM THE UPPER
30S AND PATCHY FROST.
A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE COASTAL LOW FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE TIMING OF RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. WINDS/WIND GUSTS WERE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ABOVE THE NBM GUIDANCE LATE FRI INTO SAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DRY AND CHILLY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW
FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO INTERMITTENTLY STREAM INTO THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST CONTINUE MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES, AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND
40S. SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
NEAR MAJOR BODIES OF WATER WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK. THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DEEPER MIXING AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC CORRIDOR
WILL YIELD BREEZY NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25 MPH WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID AND
SPOTTY UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
THE REX BLOCK THAT SETS UP DURING THE DAY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION NORTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE STRONG SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST QUEBEC YIELDING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AGAIN WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER/MID
40S. THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, WHERE AREAS TO LOCALLY WIDESPREAD FROST MAY OCCUR.
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY TO LOCALLY
AREAS OF FROST OVER SOUTHERN VT AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE
NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION. SOME PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE ONE ZONE
WE MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR IS SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY
LATER. MOST OTHER ZONES ARE BORDERLINE. THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND
EAST. THE NBM WAS BLENDED WITH THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS. ALSO, SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
AND SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE LOW TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON THU TRENDING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AND IT WILL BE BREEZY, AS THE COASTAL LOW FORMS WELL
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RIDGING WITH THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THU NIGHT INTO FRI ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING OCEANIC OR
COASTAL LOW NEAR 35N/70W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EVOLUTION
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCES TRY TO PHASE, BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AND EC/GFS AI STILL VARY ON THE TIMING,
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE STORM. A SHIFT WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE
COAST HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (SOME OF THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GUIDANCE), BUT THE TRACK LOOKS
SLOWER ON SOME THE WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS LIKE THE LATEST EC AND
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH IMPACTS NOT UNTIL LATE SAT
PM/SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GFS IS FAST MOVING THE WAVE
TOWARDS CAPE COD AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT INTO SAT,
AND THEN RETROGRADING OR MEANDERING THE STORM BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND
OPEN NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE OF A EASTERN MOST
SOLUTION. THE EC WOULD HAVE THE INTENSE AND DEEP COASTAL WAVE
MOVE TOWARDS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFT IT BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS COASTAL NJ ON
THE PAST FEW RUNS PRIOR TO THE LATEST 00Z ONE BEFORE MOVING IT BACK
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES
MAKE THE IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
UNCERTAIN, BUT A SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY IF THE
WESTERN MOST SCENARIO OR CLUSTER THE EC ENSEMBLE/AI LEANS
TOWARD IS CORRECT. HOWEVER, THE NBM AND WPC CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE THIRD SCENARIO OR CLUSTER WHERE THE STORM TRACKS
CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND/CAPE COD AND LONG ISLAND FOR
PERIODS OR OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS (LIGHT TO MODERATE
BEGINNING LATE FRI PM /FRI NIGHT) FROM THE I-87 OR HUDSON VALLEY
CORRIDOR EASTWARD CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECREASING
SUNDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY OR BRISK AS GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS DEVELOP. H850 -U WINDS ANOMALIES (EASTERLIES)
BECOME 2 TO 4 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
LATE FRI/SAT.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS THE NBM WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCES (20 TO 40%) OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST FRI PM-FRI NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASING TO 40-60% FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT-SAT NIGHT. THE 48-HR NBM PROBS FOR
>1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE 48-HR PERIOD ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE 20-50% RANGE FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OVER
NW CT. THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
LOW WITH PROBS FOR THE 48-HR PERIOD ENDING 8 AM MONDAY
INDICATING LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ONLY
IN THE 20-40% RANGE. WPC DID PLACE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO IN
A MARGINAL RISK SAT-SAT NIGHT. NBM PROB GUIDANCE FOR THE 24-HR
PERIOD ENDING 2 AM SUN HAS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE > 35 MPH GUSTS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INCLUDING THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS,
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THESE WINDS COULD BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED OUTDOORS OBJECTS OR KNOCK DOWN SOME FOLIATED TREE
LIMBS. SLIGHT SHIFTS WITH THE STORM TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. SOME PATCHY IFR MIST SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 12Z FOR KGFL. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR DURING THE
DAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW-SCT CIRRUS. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR MIST MAY FORM AT KGFL TONIGHT AND WE PLACED A TEMPO
GROUP IN FOR IFR CONDITIONS 08Z-11Z/THU. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT 8-13 KT IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-25 KT WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS AT KPSF AND KPOU. THE WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KT OR
LESS AFTER 22Z/WED AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
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