109
FXUS61 KALY 232344
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE COASTAL LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO
MORE DELAYED TIMING FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING, WHICH NOW APPEARS TO
BE MORE IN THE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS REMAINS LOW. WINDS/GUSTS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ABOVE
THE NBM GUIDANCE FRI THROUGH SAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF PEAK WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS S. QUEBEC WILL KEEP A COOL/LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS INTO THE GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE AREA
TO LOWER 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IN STILL IN EFFECT, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR S. WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU P.M. DUE TO CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE, A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SUNSHINE. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY, BUT SHOULD NOT IMPEDE
WARMING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FRI TO SUN TIMEFRAME IS A SLOW-MOVING
OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, THAT IS EXPECTED MEANDER NORTH/WEST
NEAR OR ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND TO LONG ISLAND COASTLINE. WHILE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK/EVOLUTION AND RESULTING RAIN/WIND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MUCH OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH THE MAIN
TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE COMPARED TO THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE CAMPS (EC, GFS, AI-GFS, AI-ECMWF) AND ALSO AMONG THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF EACH GUIDANCE SOURCE. TIMING OF
ANY BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA DOES LOOK
MORE DELAYED NOW, WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKE SAT THAN FRI. THE SAT
P.M THROUGH SUN TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
AT LEAST SOME RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
EAST. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, LATEST NBM PROBS FOR > 1.0"
IN THE 48 HR PERIOD ENDING 8 AM MON IS AROUND 25-50% FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT EAST, WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF > 2.0".
BOTTOM LINE IS THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD THE STORM TRACK SHIFT FARTHER WEST,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
COASTAL STORM FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR > 35 MPH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
40-60% FROM THE E. CATSKILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W. MA,
NW. CT AND THE RENSSELAER PLATEAU. THE PROBABILITY FOR MORE
IMPACTFUL GUSTS OF > 45 MPH ARE MUCH LOWER THOUGH, ONLY AROUND
5-20% IN SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS, SO WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE STORM MAY FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY ON MON AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY WEAKENS, BUT SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM
MOVING SLOWER, SO SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MON.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT AT KGFL, PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH
FAVORED CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CONTINUED MENTION
OF THE PATCHY FOG IN THE TEMPO GROUPS AS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH 12Z. ONCE 12Z ARRIVES,
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. WINDS THROUGH 9Z CONTINUE RANGE BETWEEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS AT KPOU ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE AFTER 16Z TO RANGE
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ043-083-
084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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