431
FXUS61 KALY 241046
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED PATCHY/AREAS FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO MESSAGE THE FOG FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM THE NBM VALUES WITH THE SFC HIGH
IN CONTROL OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH
THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY NOW.
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOT
OF VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES/MEDIUM RANGE/AI GUIDANCE
PINPOINTING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS KEEPING
CONFIDENCE LOW. WINDS/WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED LATE FRI
THROUGH SAT BY USING A BLENDED NBM/NBM90 APPROACH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.
2) FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
(40-60%) OF WIND GUSTS > 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HYDRO IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FROM THE RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS UP TO 9 AM FOR SOUTHEAST WARREN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR AREAS OF FROST FORMING AS TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID 30S. THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC HAS PRODUCED IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY,
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY JUNCTURE AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS LAKE GEORGE. THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER DRY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL. MAX TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED
CLOSE TO THE NBM HIGHS WITH MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT NIGHT. LOWS WERE LOWERED
CLOSER TO A NBM/ADJMAV/CONSMOS BLEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM AGAIN IN SOME OF THE RIVER AND SHELTERED VALLEYS.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AND POPS WERE REDUCED TO JUST A
SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND NW CT, AS THEY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOPING OCEANIC CYCLONE WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OCEANIC/COASTAL LOW MAKES SLOW PROGRESS LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
AND AI HAVE THE STORM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OR NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
POTENT LOW. THE CYCLONE MAY THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND LOOP AROUND GOING OVER OR SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS STORM TO BRING RAINFALL,
BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
DUE TO THE STRONG BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH KEEPING THIS
SYSTEM SURPRESSED. IN FACT THE LATEST EC/AI-EC HAS THIS STORM
ONLY JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND LIFTING NORTH AND BACKING WESTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
MOVING INTO NJ SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MOST SOLUTIONS OF THE GEFS/AI-GFS/GFS/CMC AND
SOME OF THE EC ENSEMBLES WHICH IS EXHIBITED BY THE NBM.
THE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE AT
BEST IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL AND WIND. BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE WAVE ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PWATS RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SAT AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY. THE WAVE MAY SIT AND SPIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR
BE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, WHILE IT MEANDERS AND LOOPS
AROUND LATE SAT INTO MON. IN FACT, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY NOW. SOME DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUE.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL ARE GREATEST IN THE 60-80% RANGE
FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT SOUTH AND EAST SAT THROUGH SUN. AGAIN, THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM MAY VARY THE TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POP UP ON SUNDAY.
THE RAINFALL DOES NOT LIKE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT WITH THE
RECENT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NBM 48-HR PROBS >
1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 8 AM MON ARE 30-50% ALONG A
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AXIS SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OVER NW CT. NBM
PROBS >2" ARE ONLY 20-25% FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME FOR NW CT AND
LESS THAN 15% ELSEWHERE. SOME PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREA.
WPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 ERO FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON THE
WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT,
AS THE HORIZONTAL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE 24-HR NBM
PROBS > 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, NW CT AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING 2 AM SUNDAY. THESE SAME
AREAS EXCLUDING THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING 2 AM SUNDAY FOR WIND GUSTS > 40 MPH, THE PROBS LOWER TO
20-40% AND FALL BELOW 15% FOR GUSTS > 45 MPH. SOME FOLIATED
TREE LIMBS COULD BE DOWNED, BUT THE GUSTS AT THIS POINT FALL
SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (46-57 MPH), BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL, ANY IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...RADIATIVE IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AT KGFL BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/THU. KALB HAS IMPROVED FROM
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO VFR WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE
WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE YIELDING MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND. THE CIRRUS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TOWARDS 06Z/FRI. KGFL MAY HAVE SOME IFR
MIST BRIEFLY DEVELOP AGAIN AND A TEMPO GROUP 07-11Z/FRI WAS USED
TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7-12 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 4 KT TO
CALM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page