715
FXUS61 KALY 250718
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
318 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 40-50 MPH
POSSIBLE.
WPC QPF USED FOR DURATION OF THE NOR'EASTER EVENT. TRACK MAY
END UP SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT NIGHT-SUN AFTER
INITIALLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WEST, SO QPF SLIGHTLY LOWER
FROM CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
EXCEPT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT POUGHKEEPSIE.
TEMPS LOWERED SUNDAY WITH STRATIFORM RAIN POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TODAY.
2) FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF RAINFALL WITH A NOR'EASTER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODERATE CHANCES (40-80%) OF WIND GUSTS > 35
MPH, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING BRINGING
ONE MORE COOL MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, AS
SOME CIRRUS STREAM IN. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
WILL BURN OFF. MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S TO EVEN LOWER 70S IN SOME OF THE VALLEY
AREAS, AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS SUNSET.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SOME GUSTS 20-30 MPH, AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WIND ADVISORY WAS STARTED AT 2 PM TODAY FOR
LITCHFIELD CO., CT, BUT THE GREATEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE NOR'EASTER THAT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. THE ENSEMBLES, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, CAMS, AND
AI-GFS/AI-ECMWF ALL SHOW THE STORM IMPACTING PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INITIALLY DEEPENING INTO THE 980-985 HPA RANGE. THE NOR'EASTER
INITIALLY HAS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE NOR'EASTER INITIALLY IS MOVING NORTH/NORTHWEST.
SOME RAIN SPREADS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS DEFORMATION
ZONE ON SATURDAY. THE CAMS SUCH AS THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAMNEST
ARE SLOW BRINGING THE RAIN INTO LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND
WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS DUE TO THE STORM BEGINNING TO DRIFT WEST
OR EVEN WEST/SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
THE NOR'EASTER BEING CLOSED OFF. THE LATEST EC/GFS/CMC/GEFS
MEAN ALSO HAVE THE STORM BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD BY LATE SATURDAY
PM, WHICH MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE
NJ COAST.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL IS CHALLENGING DUE TO
WHERE THE STORM TRACKS. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN. THERE IS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE GUIDANCE THAT THE RAIN SHIELD
INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
HIGHEST POPS IN THE 60-85% RANGE ARE USED FROM THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEAST JET WILL BE
ADVECTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PWATS RISE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT AGAIN
THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUT-OFF IN THE RAINFALL NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERS TOWARDS THE NJ
COAST/DELMARVA REGION POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY, THEN DOES A LOOP
AROUND AND LIFTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND LONG ISLAND
MON INTO TUE. DRIER WEATHER WOULD RETURN BY TUE.
SOME VARIABILITY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAINFALL DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK. FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA. TOTALS
INCREASE FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SARATOGA REGION AND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
1-2" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, SOUTHERN VT, BERKSHIRES AND CW CT. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT AND CLOSE TO THE
I-84. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR > 1.0" OF RAIN IN THE 48-HR PERIOD
ENDING 8 AM MON ARE NOW 35-80% FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, AND THE >2" PROBS ARE 25-50% AND ARE
THE HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES,
SOUTHERN TACONICS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD WITH 1-2" OF RAINFALL OVER A 48-HR PERIOD. DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT FLOODING, OUTSIDE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-
LEVEL LYING AREAS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER AT POUGHKEEPSIE SAT EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE STORM TRACK VARIES/DEVIATES AND IS MORE
NORTHWARD, THAN HIGHER QPF COULD YIELD SOME MINOR HYDRO
CONCERNS.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO OKX, WE PLACED LITCHFIELD COUNTY,
CT IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOME GUSTS 40-50 MPH LATE TODAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH SIDE OF THE NOR'EASTER DUE TO THE TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE H850 LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES FROM THE N/NE AT 40-60 KT ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. AN INVERSION IN THE 850-750 HPA LAYER SHOULD
PREVENT GUSTS FROM EXCEEDING 25-40 MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
WE ARE CONCERNED SOME STRONGER GUSTS 40-50 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY KNOCKING DOWN SOME FOLIATED TREE LIMBS, TREES
AND PRODUCING SOME POWER OUTAGES. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR > 35 MPH GUSTS ARE 40-80% 2 AM SAT TO 2 AM SUN FOR THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS TACONICS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT. THE NBM PROBS FOR WIND ADVISORY GUSTS OF > 45 MPH WERE
15-20% OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IF WIND ADVISORY GUSTS INCREASE
(46-57 MPH), THEN ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SAT...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS MOVING IN. A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL MIST MAY
OCCUR 07Z-10Z/FRI FOR KGFL AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS MAINTAINED.
THE CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH FOG/LOW
STRATUS AS LAST NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH KPOU/KPSF
TONIGHT PRIOR TO 04Z/SAT, AS SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH GETS CLOSE TO THESE AREAS AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION AT 5 KT OR
LESS THIS MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT
8-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KPOU/KPSF BY NOON AND
CONTINUING BY THE MID TO LATE PM. KALB/KGFL MAY HAVE GUSTS 15-18
KT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME 5-10 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z/FRI, AS THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN N/NE AT 5 KT OR
LESS AND THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KT. THE LLWS
DIMINISHES 13-14Z/FRI. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT
KPOU/KPSF TONIGHT TOWARDS 04Z/SAT, AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS
INCREASE TO 35 KT AND THE SFC WINDS BECOME 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
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