475
FXUS61 KALY 252308
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF NOR'EASTER TRACK AND WIND GUSTS. RAIN IS NOW
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD
CO. UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY AND ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
HUDSON RIVER NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (20-30 MPH GUSTS) WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY (40-50 MPH GUSTS) WHICH COULD DOWN SOME
FOLIATED TREES.
2) MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF RAINFALL WITH
THE APPROACHING NOR'EASTER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (70-80%) OF WIND GUSTS > 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HYDRO IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN, HOWEVER MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO OUR
NORTH HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING FOR MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
MID 70S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE THICKENING AND LOWERING IN AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS SUNSET.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER MAKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. STRONGER WIND GUSTS 45-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. THE GREATEST GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
NOR'EASTER IS AT IT'S FURTHEST WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS OF 3:00 PM EDT, THE 996 HPA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A 980-990 HPA NOR'EASTER IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE ATLANTIC, NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS AND
ENTERING THE DELMARVA REGION. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS SURROUNDING
THE TRACK AND TIMING AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS, AI-GFS/AI-
ECMWF, AND THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUING THE SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH AND
WESTERN TREND, HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS MORE IMPACTFUL SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM 3KM SHOWS A MUCH
MORE SLOW AND MORE EASTERN TRACK DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE
ALBANY AREA, BUT OUR FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE TIGHTER CLUSTER OF THE
ENSEMBLES. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WITH THE
NOR'EASTER ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS ALLOWING FOR AN
OVERCAST, BUT MAINLY DRY START TO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW ITSELF MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY BY TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT SHOULD STILL BE INTERMITTENT AND LIGHT INITIALLY. SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS REALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS EXTEND NORTHWARD
BECOMING A STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAINLY I-90 SOUTH AND
EAST AS THE NOR'EASTER SHIFTS WESTWARD TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TOWARDS THE NJ COAST. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THEN HAS THE SYSTEM
SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE NJ COAST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND LIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND THE NATURE OF A CUTOFF LOW FROM
STEERING FLOW.
THE AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE RAINFALL STILL HAS SOME
UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STORM TRACKS HOWEVER LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION STILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN WITH A SHARP CUTOFF POSSIBLE NORTH OF ALBANY.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS EXPECTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR. NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS 70-80% CHANCE FOR >1" FOR SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS, SOUTHERN ULSTER, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, AS WELL AS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE CATSKILLS, TACONICS, AND THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS
IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS HAVE
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR >1" AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY HAVE A
20% OR LESS CHANCE FOR >1". THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LOCALIZED UP TO
3" POSSIBLE NEAR I-84, HOWEVER WITH DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
AND RAINFALL BEING OVER A LONGER PERIOD, HYDRO CONCERNS FROM
RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL, OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING OF WATER LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND NUISANCE FLOODING IN AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY FLOOD. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
HUDSON RIVER NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE FROM TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING WHERE A PERIOD OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND DOCKS ALONG THE RIVER.
THE MAIN THREAT OUR REGION WILL SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG
WINDS, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKE WITH RAINFALL,
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 70-80% CHANCE OF >35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MID-HUDOSN
VALLEY, SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH A
20-40% CHANCE FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH. THE GREATEST
PEAK GUSTS (40-50 MPH) WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE
THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS >45 MPH
WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME FOLIATED TREE LIMBS, TREES AND PRODUCE
SOME POWER OUTAGES. THE H850 LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FROM THE N/NE
AT 40-60 KT ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOMEWHAT DEEP INVERSION IN THE 850-750 HPA LAYER
WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT GUSTS FROM EXCEEDING 25-40 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF WIND ADVISORY
GUSTS INCREASE (46-57 MPH), THEN ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL TOMORROW AND ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE DRIER AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS THE NOR'EASTER EXITS TO OUR EAST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE
TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT THESE INITIAL SHOWERS SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE ONLY A LIMITED IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. AS
A RESULT, IT SHOULD STAY VFR INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS AT KPOU AND KPSF, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING
AND THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AT ALL SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF, WHERE THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS WITHIN SHOWERS AFTER 18Z-19Z OR SO. KGFL/KALB
SHOULD STAY VFR, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING
IT INTO THOSE SITES AS WELL. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
AND SOME GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AT KPSF/KPOU. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
WELL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...27
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