614
FXUS61 KALY 260703
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
303 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDED WIND GUSTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS UP TO 30 - 40MPH MAINLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A NOR'EASTER THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE ANY FLOODING IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS, THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY, CT CAN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT AS THE LATEST RAP SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC LOW DOWN TO 995HPA. RAIN BANDS ARE
ROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND, LONG ISLAND AND NJ
WITH BANDS WEAKENING AS THEY EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY. THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ITS FAVORABLE
POSITION IN THE EQUATORWARD EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ALLOWING IT
TO DEEPEN A FEW MORE MILLIBARS. WHILE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN
NY TODAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAINING RATHER
HIGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AS THEY OVERCOME LOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. WHILE RAIN WILL NOT
BE A CONCERN TODAY, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, AND PARTS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SHOWS
A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR GUST EXCEEDING 30KTS THROUGH SUNSET. SUCH
WINDS CAN BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS AND LEAD TO
DOWNED TREE LIMBS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT OUR NOR'EASTER TRACKS
FURTHER WEST/INLAND AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY PHASES WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE THIS EVENING.
THIS INTERACTION AND SHIFT IN TRACK WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BANDS FROM OUR NOR'EASTER TO PROGRESS INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE STORM, SUPPORTING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS. WITH OUR SFC LOW REMAINING AROUND 990HPA AND ITS
IMPRESSIVE 45-55KTS JET IN THE 925-850HPA LAYER PUSHING INLAND,
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30KTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TO REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED
40KTS, COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY BEYOND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS THE GREATEST CHANCE HERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45KTS
RESULTING IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND CAN EXPAND THE
WIND ADVISORY, IF NEEDED.
BESIDES THE WIND, BANDS OF STEADY/MODERATE BANDS OF RAIN FROM
OUR NOR'EASTER WILL ROTATE INLAND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN INTENSITY SHOULD
VARY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTHEN OF A RAIN BAND BUT LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR 3-HRLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO EXCEED 0.50" FROM 09 - 18 UTC SUNDAY FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS TIME WINDOW
WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ENHANCED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS, TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND BERKSHIRES. THESE
AREAS ALSO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE (70-80%) FOR STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM MON TO EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH
EVEN A 50 TO 60% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND PARTS OF NW CT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE
REGION FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD END UP
WITH BETWEEN 1 AND 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
TREND DOWNWARDS HEADING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER 0.50" IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AS THESE AREAS SHOULD MISS OUT ON THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS.
WHILE OUR COASTAL LOW WEAKENS BY MONDAY AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED, A BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE TO ITS NORTH AND EAST WILL
KEEP IT STALLED OFF THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AROUND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING BY MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS BY
THIS TIME SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. FINALLY, WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06 UTC/SUN...A BKN TO OVC DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH CIGS
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 15KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 12 UTC/SAT SUPPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING BAND
OF SHOWERS IS PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL LOW BUT
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY SO
REMOVED ANY SHOWER MENTION FROM THE PSF AND POU TAF THROUGH
SUNRISE. THEN, A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN BETWEEN
14 AND 21 UTC. WHILE MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT
OBSTRUCT VISIBILITY, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VIS AT PSF,
POU AND ALB AS THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SHOWERS BECOME STEADY
ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS. STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INCOMING NOR'EASTER PUSH INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUING AFTER 06 UTC/SUN. THIS
PERIOD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR
VIS/CIG AND POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR VIS DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH 12
UTC AT ALB, PSF AND POU SUSTAINED 5 - 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KTS AT PSF. WINDS STRENGTHEN BY 14-15 UTC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
10-15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AT KPSF/KPOU WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
REACH 30KTS. INTRODUCED LLWS AT PSF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL AS WINDS AT 2KFT REACH 50KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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