463
FXUS61 KALY 261059
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
659 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDED WIND GUSTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS UP TO 30 - 40MPH MAINLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A NOR'EASTER THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE ANY FLOODING IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS, THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY, CT CAN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT AS THE LATEST RAP SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC LOW DOWN TO 995HPA. RAIN BANDS ARE
ROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH BANDS
WEAKENING AS THEY EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ITS FAVORABLE POSITION IN
THE EQUATORWARD EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ALLOWING IT TO
DEEPEN A FEW MORE MILLIBARS. WHILE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS
WILL ROTATE FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NY TODAY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AS THEY OVERCOME LOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. WHILE ONLY LIGHT AND
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, AND PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SHOWS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR
GUST EXCEEDING 30KTS THROUGH SUNSET. SUCH WINDS CAN BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS AND LEAD TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT OUR NOR'EASTER TRACKS
FURTHER WEST/INLAND AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY PHASES WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE THIS EVENING.
THIS INTERACTION AND SHIFT IN TRACK WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BANDS FROM OUR NOR'EASTER TO PROGRESS INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE STORM, SUPPORTING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF RUMBLES
OF THUNDER GIVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH OUR SFC LOW
REMAINING AROUND 990HPA AND ITS IMPRESSIVE 45-55KTS JET IN THE
925-850HPA LAYER PUSHING INLAND, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL
EXCEED 30KTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARP INVERSION
THAT SHOULD PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS TO REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40KTS, COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY
BEYOND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST CHANCE
HERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45KTS RESULTING IN DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND CAN EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY, IF NEEDED.
BESIDES THE WIND, BANDS OF STEADY/MODERATE BANDS OF RAIN FROM
OUR NOR'EASTER WILL ROTATE INLAND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN INTENSITY SHOULD
VARY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTHEN OF A RAIN BAND BUT LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR 3-HRLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO EXCEED 0.50" FROM 09 - 18 UTC SUNDAY FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS TIME WINDOW
WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A RIVER FLOOD WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON RIVER AT POUGHKEEPSIE GIVEN TIDAL FLOODING DURING ITS
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS, SOUTHERN
GREENS, AND BERKSHIRES. THESE AREAS ALSO HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE (70-80%) FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 8PM SAT TO
8PM MON TO EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH EVEN A 50 TO 60% CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND PARTS OF NW
CT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 AND 2.50 INCHES OF
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS HEADING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR UNDER 0.50" IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AS THESE AREAS
SHOULD MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS. WHILE OUR COASTAL
LOW WEAKENS BY MONDAY AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED, A
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE TO ITS NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP IT
STALLED OFF THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AROUND INTO
MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING BY MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS BY THIS
TIME SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. FINALLY, WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12 UTC/SUN...WE START OFF THE DAY WITH VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS A BKN TO OVC DECK OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES STREAMING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING
NOR'EASTER. WHILE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED AT POU AND PSF OVERNIGHT
AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW, VFR VIS
CONTINUED GIVEN ITS LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD
ARRIVING BETWEEN 14 AND 18 UTC INITIALLY REACHING POU BEFORE
PUSHING INTO PSF AND ALB. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VIS AT
PSF, POU AND ALB AS THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SHOWERS BECOME
STEADY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS. STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING NOR'EASTER THEN LOOK TO PUSH INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BY 05 - 07 UTC/SUN. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR VIS/CIG AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR VIS DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AT ALL TERMINALS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING BY 14 - 15 UTC BECOMING SUSTAINED 5 - 10KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 - 30KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AT ALB/PSF/POU.
MAINTAINED LLWS AT PSF AND INTRODUCED IT FOR POU 05-06 UTC AS
WINDS AT 2KFT REACH 50KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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