184
FXUS61 KALY 270617
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
217 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF TIDAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS COULD DOWN SOME TREE
LIMBS AND RESULT IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW DOWN TO 992 HPA. LATEST CAMS AND
GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD LONG
ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN WESTWARD AND REACH THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. BY THEN, THIS STORM WOULD HAVE LIKELY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND
SITS AND SPINS INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD
OUT TO SEA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THIS
WILL BE A LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT BUT THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN
THE RAINFALL AT TIMES. THE PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW NEARS THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL VARY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH 1 TO 2.5 INCHES LIKELY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. OUTSIDE OF PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN, LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNNY, DRY
WEATHER PRIOR TO THIS EVENT, LONG DURATION OF THIS STORM AND
OVERALL HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED AT THE HUDSON RIVER AT POUGHKEEPSIE THIS
AFTERNOON, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PLUS STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS LITCHFIELD COUNTY
AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN SOME OF THESE AREAS ALONG WITH SOME DOWNED TREES AND
TREE LIMBS. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BERKSHIRE, DUTCHESS AND
EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION THESE GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO THE ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR LESS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A NOR'EASTER OFF THE NJ COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SPARSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STEADIER BANDS OF
RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR VIS FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD BY
07 TO 11 UTC THIS MORNING INITIALLY REACHING POU AND PSF BEFORE
HEADING TO ALB AND GFL. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MVFR FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS BY 17 - 18 UTC. WHILE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR VIS WILL REMAIN AROUND POU AND PSF THIS
AFTERNOON, PERIODS OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK
TO RETURN TO GFL AND ALB AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUPPORT
DOWNSLOPING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR VIS RETURN THIS EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. REMOVED IFR CIGS MENTION AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD FAVOR MVFR LEVELS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KPOU AND KPSF CONTINUES AS A ~50KT JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND CONTINUED LLWS AT PSF THROUGH 21 UTC TODAY.
OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS
MORNING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS AT ALB, PSF AND
POU THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARDS. STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY AT KPOU/KPSF DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
NOR'EASTER WITH WEAKEST WINDS AT GFL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...31
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