258
FXUS61 KALY 272315
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE NOR'EASTER WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A NOR'EASTER IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THOUGH TONIGHT. THIS STORM HAS ALSO BEGUN ITS WEAKENING STAGE
WITH ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO NEAR 1000 HPA BASED ON THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. A BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WITH A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT BRINGING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90. THIS DRY SLOT WILL GET CUT OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME AND BAND OF
RAIN ROTATES AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW AND REACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW. SO, EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO
SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS. WITH THE CONTINUED LONG DURATION OF THIS
EVENT PLUS SOME DRY PERIODS AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES MAINLY
0.25 INCHES OR LESS, NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE STORM ITSELF, THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM
THIS STORM HAVE ENDED. THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING FURTHER TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. BY
TOMORROW, WIND GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20 MPH.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH
TOMORROW. PARTIAL CLEARING BY MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS INTO THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A NOR'EASTER CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA THIS EVENING, WILL TRACK NE INTO SE NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO START THE
PERIOD. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH DETERIORATION TO IFR
EXPECTED AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KGFL
UNTIL CLOSE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL THEN. OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WILL
KEEP IFR CIGS PREVAILING, WITH VSBY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 7-11 KT. GUSTS OF 20 KT AT
KPSF WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...07
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