821
FXUS61 KALY 280703
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
303 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS LATER INTO THIS EVENING
GIVEN SLOW EXIT OF OUR REMNANT NOR'EASTER. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AS OUR MUCH WEAKER NOR'EASTER LIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THEN, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS OF OUR NOW
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AND VERTICALLY STACKED NOR'EASTER JUST OFF
THE NJ COAST SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE STORM
CENTER WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ALREADY UP TO 1003HPA. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SFC LOW TO GRADUALLY
LIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ITS MOISTURE
FOOTPRINT AND CLOSED YET BROADENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALOFT
EXTENDING WELL WEST INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL GIVE US ANOTHER DREARY AND CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS THANKS TO SOME WEAK FGEN LINGERING WITHIN ITS
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SHOWERS SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-90 LIKELY DRY UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
STEADIEST FROM THE HUDSON RIVER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN VT,
WESTERN MA AND NW CT WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 40 TO
70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.20" OF RAIN IN THE 6-HRLY TIME WINDOWS
BETWEEN 12-18 UTC AND 18-00 UTC. AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SHOULD REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE
DAY WITH JUST A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT
OF THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TREND WEAKER AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE BY 21 - 00 UTC WITH MOST SHOWERS EXITING BY 03
- 06 UTC. GIVEN SLOW EXIT OF THE BROAD PARENT CIRCULATION ALOFT
WHERE THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING
MATCHING UP WITH THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS. THEN, WE TRENDED THE
FORECAST DRIER YET CLOUDY AFTER 06 UTC. LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE FOR 24-HR RAINFALL WHICH IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTED
TO SOME VERY LOW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS THAT FAVOR AT LEAST 0.25" OF 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ENDING 12 UTC TUES, OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AND
LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH SHOULD MISS OUT ON THE
STEADIEST RAIN.
CLOUDY SKIES LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
UNDER THE NOW VERY BROAD CIRCULATION LINGERS OVERHEAD AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO SEE BREAKS OF SUN AS
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE ADVECTS DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THE FLATTENING RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT,
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A 75% CHANCE FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO EXCEED 75 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN). THEN, WE
WILL MONITOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
MAINLY JUST A 30% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.10" SUGGESTING
A LIGHT RAIN EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OUR NOR'EASTER CENTERED OFF THE NJ COAST HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN THAT WILL DEGRADE FLYING CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY AT POU WILL TRANSITION INTO
STEADIER PERIODS BY 07 - 10 UTC BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES PSF BY
AROUND 12 UTC. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS RAIN WILL
SUPPORT IFR VIS/CIGS AT BOTH SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE AND STEADY INTENSITY OF RAIN. STEADY RAIN
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 15-16 UTC FOR ALB/GFL WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS
EVENTUALLY DEGRADING TO IFR AT ALB BY 19 UTC. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT GFL SO SIDED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
THE RAIN INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE. RAIN WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE BY 21 - 03 UTC FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SO SLOWLY SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT POU AND GFL. MAINTAINED
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AT ALB AND PSF, RESPECTIVELY, WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TRAPPED UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 06 UTC.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 6-8 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 18 - 22KTS AT KPSF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING FALLING NEAR OR
UNDER 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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