885
FXUS61 KALY 281800
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BANDS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED THE SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, POPS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A NOR'EASTER LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, NO HYDRO ISSUES OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN RECENT DAYS AS WELL.
2) DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND, BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH
HOURLY RATES MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. CAMS AND
OTHER SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE BANDS OF RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY WINDING
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH
PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM OR SO, ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
THE STORM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL BE GETTING CLOSE
TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE
THIS RAINFALL, NO FLOODING OR HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE STORM WEAKENING, WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION
AS WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5
MPH OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WEAKENING STORM
SYSTEM AND WINDS DYING DOWN, TIDAL FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON THE HUDSON RIVER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL NEAR ACTION STAGE DURING
HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT, IT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING, BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, SOME PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS.
IT BE CONTINUED DRY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE TURNING ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH VALLEY AREAS REACHING INTO THE 70S ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO
KEEP FROST AWAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME PASSING SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY MILD
ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN MILD. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND (MAINLY ON SUNDAY), ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
29/00Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STEADIER BANDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 28/22Z. PERIODS OF MIST, FOG, AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH 29/06Z WHEN FOG AND MIST BECOME MORE
DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN AFTER
29/12Z. NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WITH CALM WINDS IN STORE
TONIGHT THROUGH 29/12Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...05
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