545
FXUS61 KALY 290714
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
314 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST AS CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER ONE LAST CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
STILL AROUND, WE TURN DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING UNDER 1 INCH MEANS FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REMNANTS OF OUR NOR'EASTER AND ASSOCIATED PARENT LOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVERHEAD. WHILE A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY/PA
TODAY, ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST
MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE, EXPECTING YET ANOTHER DREARY DAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
AROUND; HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN COMPARED TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS EAST ENOUGH THIS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER, WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, THE CLEARING SKIES
CAN EASILY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS. THEN, OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH TAKE CONTROL OF
THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THAN NORMAL THANKS
TO PERSIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING A WARMER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. IN FACT, THERE IS AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXCEED 75 DEGREES IN
VALLEY AREAS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE WARM,
MOISTURE STREAMING UP AND OVER A CLOSED HIGH PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
LIMITING TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH LESS THAN A
20% CHANCE FOR HIGHS EITHER DAY TO EXCEED 80 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CENTERED TO
OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO SUPPORT A MOISTURE FETCH OUT OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, FUNNELING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. LATEST
NAEFS SHOW PWATS WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME RANGING 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND BECOMING FOCUSED AHEAD OF
OUR INCOMING COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS SET-UP WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN (STEADY AT
TIMES) AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY (FAVORING FRI AFTERNOON), FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
STEADY RAIN TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. IN FACT, NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
EXCEED 0.50" REGIONWIDE. THEREFORE, FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
BEFORE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST FOR SATURDAY, TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND GIVING US A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06 UTC WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 10 - 13
UTC AT ALL SITES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT GFL. IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY MVFR BY 12 - 15 UTC WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL
POSSIBLE AT ALB DURING THE DAY (LIKELY NOT RESULTING IN A
CATEGORY CHANGE). THEN, LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY MIXES OUT
ENOUGH THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR BY
EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AS CLOUDS AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE THIS P.M INTO THE EVENING, PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. INCLUDED MVFR CIGS FROM FOG AT GFL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING BECOME MAINLY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND THAN 5-7 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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