696
FXUS61 KALY 291740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST AS CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER ONE LAST CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
STILL AROUND, WE TURN DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING UNDER 1 INCH MEANS FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REMNANTS OF OUR NOR'EASTER AND ASSOCIATED PARENT LOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVERHEAD. WHILE A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY/PA
TODAY, ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST
MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE, EXPECTING YET ANOTHER DREARY DAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
AROUND (INCLUDING DRIZZLE/MIST THIS MORNING); HOWEVER, WE WILL
NOT EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD STEADY SHOWERS AS WE DID THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS EAST ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO
SUPPORT PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, ANY CLEARING CAN EASILY SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS. THEN, OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH TAKE CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO PERSIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. IN FACT, THERE IS AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXCEED 75 DEGREES IN
VALLEY AREAS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE WARM,
MOISTURE STREAMING UP AND OVER A CLOSED HIGH PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
LIMITING TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH LESS THAN A
20% CHANCE FOR HIGHS EITHER DAY TO EXCEED 80 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CENTERED TO
OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO SUPPORT A MOISTURE FETCH OUT OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, FUNNELING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. LATEST
NAEFS SHOW PWATS WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME RANGING 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND BECOMING FOCUSED AHEAD OF
OUR INCOMING COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS SET-UP WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN (STEADY AT
TIMES) AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY (FAVORING FRI AFTERNOON), FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
STEADY RAIN TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. IN FACT, NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
EXCEED 0.50" REGIONWIDE. THEREFORE, FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
BEFORE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST FOR SATURDAY, TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND GIVING US A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND MIST CONTINUES AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH 22Z.
PATCHY FOG AND/OR MIST DEVELOPS TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
30/00Z AND 30/06Z BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 30/06Z,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR KGFL, KPSF, AND KALB TO DEVELOP LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OR MIST WHICH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN TEMPO
GROUPS. FOR KGFL, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 12Z, SO INTRODUCED IN THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
AT KPOU, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS FORECAST TIME IF FOG OR MIST
DEVELOPS, BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM 10Z
TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH 15Z. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 30/00Z, WITH
CALM WINDS RETURNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...05
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