529
FXUS61 KALY 300546
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEPT CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING, DECREASING
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FOR
TONIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. ALSO MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER ONE LAST CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT, WE TURN DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TOMORROW
AND THURSDAY.
2) THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE WEAKENED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
(THE REMNANTS FROM THE DEPARTED NOR'EASTER) AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR EAST, THE CHANCES FOR ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DECREASED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR MIST, MAINLY
AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH WHAT LINGERING MOISTURE'S LEFT AND
WEAK LIFTING FORCES, BUT SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET. DRIER AND MORE
WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE TO
BUILD IN. SINKING AIR WILL HELP TO CREATE SOME AREAS OF PARTIAL
CLEARING TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS.
WITH WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH
BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL MAKE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE +1 TO +2 STDEV BEING IN THE UPPER 60S (TERRAIN)
AND MID 70S (VALLEYS). THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AGAIN WITH
THURSDAY'S HIGHS BEING SIMILAR TO TOMORROW AND FRIDAY'S HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S (TERRAIN) AND LOW 80S (VALLEYS).
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT A 70-80% CHANCE OF >75F IN VALLEY
AREAS AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF >80F IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN ADKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY DRY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 2", ABOUT +1.25 TO +1.75 STDEV ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVING FRIDAY LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 0.25" ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED
UP TO 0.5" POSSIBLE. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE
FOR >0.25" FOR AREAS I-90 SOUTH AND A 40 TO 60% CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHER ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. CHANCES FOR >0.50" OR GREATER IS
LESS THAN 30%. WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SHOWERS PROGRESSING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY <300 J/KG, SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE, HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS COULD STILL OCCUR BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. AFTER A
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S AND UP TO 70 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
PASS THROUGH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL, RAIN THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BENEFICIAL
WITH NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD, DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/THU, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPANSIVE
STRATUS DECK OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
BREAKS. THUS, WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM ALB/GFL/PSF
WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
VIS FROM FOG AT POU TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHERE THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 12 UTC WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING AT ALL TERMINALS
UNTIL 15 - 18 UTC WHEN CIGS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH
MAINLY JUST A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD AFTER 00 UTC/01 AND PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR FOG
TO FORM RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR VIS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT LESS THAN 5 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page