028
FXUS61 KALY 302311
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
OVERNIGHT, WE REMOVED FOG FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWEST FLOW PROPAGATING AROUND A 1020 HPA ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO USHER SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND MERE BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN. SO WHILE IT'S DRY WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES, WE REMAIN IN A DREARY PATTERN. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWER CHANCES. TOMORROW, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN OVERCOMING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
FROM THE NEARBY HIGH. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT (ANA FRONT) WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. A
RESULTING 0.05" TO 0.5" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST OF
THESE AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE
NORTH, WEST, AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SATURDAY WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS THAT CONSISTENT SUN WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SKIES REMAIN LARGELY GRAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST REMAIN PLEASANT AND EVEN GET QUITE
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF
1 TO NEARLY 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL WILL DRIVE ABOVE-NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. TOMORROW'S
HIGHS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BEFORE
FRIDAY'S VALUES REACH THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AND EVEN POCKETS
NEAR 80 IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY. BUT, THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ENSURES A TREND BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LARGELY FALL TO
THE 30S, WHICH COULD POSE THE THREAT OF FROST FORMATION IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON WILL STILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT DESPITE A THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BRINGING INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS/VSBYS), ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 07Z-12Z/THU AT KGFL, KALB AND KPSF. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY ALSO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES THURSDAY
MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z/THU, HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REDUCE VSBYS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KT BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING, EXCEPT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AT KALB. A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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