244
FXUS61 KALY 011044
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE, WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DESPITE WARM
850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN PLACE (+13 TO 15C), CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
HOW WARM AREAS GET. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID-60S TO
MID-70S BUT SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS COULD END UP WARMER WHERE
MORE BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LATEST CAMS DO SHOW THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE
0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OR LESS WITH UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH 60S FOR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT, WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH SUNNY, FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. MOST OF SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AS WE MAY BE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS, THEN
BRINGS A BRIEF PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT (850 HPA TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C). HIGHS TUESDAY MAY ONLY
REACH THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS CHILLY NIGHT MAY
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST, INCLUDING WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...AFTER ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING FOG LIFTS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH CONTINUED BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THIS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND
AT THE SURFACE TO PREVENT MUCH IF ANY FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT,
BUT COULD DEVELOP AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD THERE BE ANY PERIODS OF
CALM WINDS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 6-10 KT TODAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT
5 KT OR LESS AT KPOU. BORDERLINE LLWS MAY DEVELOP AT KPOU AFTER
06Z/FRI WITH 2000 FT WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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