951
FXUS61 KALY 011702
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE, WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DESPITE WARM
850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN PLACE (+13 TO 15C), CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
HOW WARM AREAS GET. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID-60S TO
MID-70S BUT SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS COULD END UP WARMER WHERE
MORE BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LATEST CAMS DO SHOW THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE
0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OR LESS WITH UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH 60S FOR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT, WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH SUNNY, FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. MOST OF SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AS WE MAY BE SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS, THEN
BRINGS A BRIEF PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT (850 HPA TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C). HIGHS TUESDAY MAY ONLY
REACH THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS CHILLY NIGHT MAY
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST, INCLUDING WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVEL IS ALLOWING THIS
PRECIP TO MOSTLY FALL AS VIRGA AND DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION A PROB30 FOR KGFL, KALB AND KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER, BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND
5-10 KFT FOR ALL SITES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
AREAS (SUCH AS KPOU AND KPSF) SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER, THERE
GENERALLY WILL STILL BE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10-20 KFT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL SITES WITH NO PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS.
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF LLWS AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 2
KFT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS.
ON FRIDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WILL START OFF DRY, THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. KGFL/KALB WILL SEE SHOWERS FIRST, WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING TOWARDS KPSF/KPOU BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITHIN ANY
PRECIP, MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...27
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