954
FXUS61 KALY 011815
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GRAY SKIES PERSIST FOR YET ANOTHER DAY AS TWO BROAD SURFACE
HIGHS, ONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND ONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, HAVE
FORCED A NARROW, SOUTHWEST- TO NORTHEAST- ORIENTED MOISTURE
AXIS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO OUR
REGION. SIMULTANEOUS TO THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION, WARM AIR HAS
ALSO BEEN ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF A LOW-LEVEL WARM
FRONT, DRIVING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. WEAK REFLECTIVITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ON THE KENX
RADAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, AMPLE LOW- LEVEL
DRY AIR COURTESY OF THE NEARBY HIGH HAS, PER LATEST OBS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS REACHED THE
GROUND.
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR VIRGA WILL PERSIST, MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, LIKELY BREAKING UP AS IT TRACKS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, DUE TO THE CONFRONTATION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE SWIFT NATURE OF THE FRONT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF POTENT FORCING, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY. HERE, QPF RANGES FROM ~0.25" TO 0.5" WHILE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT 0.15" IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL FINALLY BE THE DAY THAT WE CONSISTENTLY SEE THE
SUN AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT INCREASES WITH THE
BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE FROM THE WEST. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY WARM GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD (850 HPA TEMPERATURES ~1.5 TO 1.8
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL), THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL COOL THINGS
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND
A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO OUR REGION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CREATE WILL USHER IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS THAT COULD BE CAUSE FOR SOME FROST FORMATION IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ONGOING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVEL IS ALLOWING THIS
PRECIP TO MOSTLY FALL AS VIRGA AND DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION A PROB30 FOR KGFL, KALB AND KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER, BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND
5-10 KFT FOR ALL SITES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
AREAS (SUCH AS KPOU AND KPSF) SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER, THERE
GENERALLY WILL STILL BE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10-20 KFT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL SITES WITH NO PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS.
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF LLWS AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 2
KFT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS.
ON FRIDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WILL START OFF DRY, THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. KGFL/KALB WILL SEE SHOWERS FIRST, WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING TOWARDS KPSF/KPOU BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITHIN ANY
PRECIP, MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
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