649
FXUS61 KALY 012325
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GRAY SKIES PERSIST FOR YET ANOTHER DAY AS TWO BROAD SURFACE
HIGHS, ONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND ONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, HAVE
FORCED A NARROW, SOUTHWEST- TO NORTHEAST- ORIENTED MOISTURE
AXIS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO OUR
REGION. SIMULTANEOUS TO THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION, WARM AIR HAS
ALSO BEEN ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF A LOW-LEVEL WARM
FRONT, DRIVING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. WEAK REFLECTIVITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ON THE KENX
RADAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, AMPLE LOW- LEVEL
DRY AIR COURTESY OF THE NEARBY HIGH HAS, PER LATEST OBS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS REACHED THE
GROUND.
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR VIRGA WILL PERSIST, MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, LIKELY BREAKING UP AS IT TRACKS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, DUE TO THE CONFRONTATION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE SWIFT NATURE OF THE FRONT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF POTENT FORCING, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY. HERE, QPF RANGES FROM ~0.25" TO 0.5" WHILE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT 0.15" IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL FINALLY BE THE DAY THAT WE CONSISTENTLY SEE THE
SUN AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT INCREASES WITH THE
BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE FROM THE WEST. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY WARM GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD (850 HPA TEMPERATURES ~1.5 TO 1.8
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL), THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL COOL THINGS
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND
A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO OUR REGION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CREATE WILL USHER IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS THAT COULD BE CAUSE FOR SOME FROST FORMATION IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ONGOING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SATURDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS: SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KGFL, AND
SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/FRI,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT. SOME
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR. ALSO, IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 4-8 KT OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO 5-12 KT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
15-20 KT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST, EXCEPT NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KGFL, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT, STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 8 KT, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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