791
FXUS61 KALY 021805
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
2) A MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST AT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED WITH THE FRONT
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
T-STORMS POPPING UP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (SOUTHERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS,
LITCHFIELD) DUE TO WARM/HUMID AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THERE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH A NW
BREEZE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT, PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUN, WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY SUN EVENING/NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST OFF THE COAST, AND ALSO
NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. IT WILL TURN
BREEZY ON MON, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH. WHILE IT WILL BE CHILLY MON NIGHT, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST A PERSISTENT BREEZE SHOULD
PREVENT FROST IN VALLEY AREAS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS TUE NIGHT, AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...AS OF 1:55 PM EDT, CURRENT KENX RADAR SHOWS
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT HOUR (KGFL AND KALB) AND FEW HOURS (KPOU AND KPSF) FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN VFR HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DUE TO UPSLOPING FROM TERRAIN. THE
OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO A PROB30 WAS USED
FOR THIS CHANCE. CURRENT GOES GEOCOLOR AND DAY CLOUD
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF LOW STRATOCUMULUS
AND THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH COULD
LOWER TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING OCCURS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS OVERNIGHT DECREASE TO 3-6 KT BEFORE PICKING BACK
UP TOMORROW MORNING 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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