786
FXUS61 KALY 031823
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
223 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES
(LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT OVERCAST SKIES RETURN FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WAS INCREASED FROM NULL TO 15-45 PERCENT BASED ON
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES SUGGESTING DRIZZLE TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
A BLUSTERY MONDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS CAN RANGE BETWEEN 20
AND 35 MPH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO
BRING THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRES, AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THESE WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
PREVENTING ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST TO BRING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME, FROST ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED FOR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
AND THE FORECAST REMAINS STEADY FOR COOL AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER IN ALBANY IS BETWEEN 44 AND 46 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG FROM 08Z-12Z AT KGFL. HOWEVER
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS LOW SO WILL JUST MENTION MVFR VSBY FOR NOW. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 7-10 KT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...07
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