439
FXUS61 KALY 041058
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FOR PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOLLOWING A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH SOME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND MAINLY IMPACT THE ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT (850 HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR TO BELOW 0C) WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE SAME AREAS MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY REACHING THE 50S EXCEPT THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY WHICH
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL REACH THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
EACH NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NORTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE
WIND TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES LATER THIS WEEK, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY, BUT NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS AT KPOU THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. CIGS
MAY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT SOME OR MOST SITES BETWEEN
06-12Z/MON BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO PASS THE TAF SITES WITHIN AN HOUR BEFORE
OR AFTER 12Z/MON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY AT 5-10 KT THEN LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD 12Z/MON
AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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