185
FXUS61 KALY 042316
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
MORNING. BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIND GUSTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 35 MPH. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL ON TRACK, FROM
THIS MORNING'S FORECAST, TO BE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES. MAKE SURE TO SECURE ANY
OUTDOOR LOOSE OBJECTS AS THEY COULD BE BLOWN AROUND DUE TO THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
PREVENTING ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST TO BRING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION. AT THIS FORECAST
TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND IMPACTFUL FROST
WILL BE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH FROM EASTERN NEW YORK. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. FOR REFERENCE, THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER IN ALBANY IS
BETWEEN 44 AND 46 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE BETWEEN
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS OF 7:15 PM EDT, FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS 3500-5000 FT EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, BUT BETWEEN 7-
9Z TOMORROW SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GFL/ALB, AND
POSSIBLY PSF. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF POU. SHOWERS END AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 5000-6000 FT AROUND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT ALB REMAIN AT 5-10
KT FROM THE S/SE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, BEFORE THEN PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5 KT FROM THE S/SW. WINDS ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE W/NW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
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